XRP ETF decision looms as legal clarity and SEC approval drive optimism across the crypto market - IcoHolder.

A significant decision regarding the XRP ETF is expected on June 17. Ripple is actively pushing for a legal settlement while the SEC prepares to announce its verdict on Franklin Templeton’s ETF application. If the outcome favors XRP, the cryptocurrency could experience a sharp, parabolic price surge.

Strong Odds for XRP ETF Approval

Market sentiment shows robust confidence in the approval of a spot XRP ETF. Polymarket’s probability for XRP ETF approval peaked at 98% earlier this month and currently stands at around 88%. The SEC’s forthcoming decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF could mark a pivotal moment not only for XRP but also for the wider crypto industry.

Potential for Further Delays

Despite optimistic forecasts, Bloomberg analysts estimate an 85% chance that an XRP ETF will gain approval sometime this year. Several prominent firms, including Bitwise and Grayscale, are awaiting green lights for their own XRP ETF proposals. Grayscale’s decision is anticipated by October 18, while ProShares expects a final ruling by June 25. Should the SEC approve ProShares’ ETF, further delays beyond that date would not be possible.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart characterizes the recent postponements as typical, noting that the SEC usually utilizes the full review period. Most final decisions are expected around October, and even with a crypto-friendly regulatory stance, early approvals would be considered unusual.

Legal Developments Could Make or Break Approval

Nate Geraci, President of Crypto ETF Store, highlights the rapid evolution of crypto ETFs, including advancements in staking and altcoin offerings. Ripple and the SEC recently filed a joint motion on June 12 requesting the lifting of the XRP sales ban to institutions and a reduction of the $125 million fine. Legal observers are closely monitoring this development.

Some experts anticipate Judge Torres might approve the motion by June 19, but caution remains. Pro-crypto attorney John Deaton assigns the motion a 70% chance of success, while Bill Morgan warns the court could again resist.

If approved, this would clear a major obstacle for an XRP spot ETF, placing Franklin Templeton’s deadline in sharp focus. However, ongoing legal disputes increase the likelihood of further SEC delays.

XRP’s Price Poised for Movement

Currently trading at $2.23 with a 3.2% gain in the past 24 hours, XRP stands at a critical juncture. The combination of legal clarity and potential ETF approval could trigger a significant breakout. Conversely, any setbacks or postponements may provoke short-term sell-offs, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to regulatory and judicial developments.