Nansen predicts a potential crypto market bottom between April-June, highlighting key economic data and policy moves - IcoHolder.

Nansen Research has pointed to this week as a crucial time for the cryptocurrency market, with several macroeconomic indicators potentially signaling that a bottom for crypto prices could emerge between April and June. Aurelie Barthere, principal researcher at Nansen, shared her outlook on April 1, 2025, highlighting key data releases and policy announcements that investors should watch closely.

This week’s developments will include important economic data, such as the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, U.S. tariffs, and indicators of economic growth like manufacturing and jobs data. Barthere referred to this period as "Liberation Week," suggesting that a combination of these factors could influence the direction of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Nansen’s research suggests that this week’s data could shed light on the broader market sentiment. Barthere indicated that the outlook is not limited to cryptocurrencies but extends to traditional assets as well, noting recent struggles in equities. A significant concern for crypto and risk assets has been the announcement of new tariffs, including a 25% auto tariff, which could further exacerbate market instability. However, Nansen believes that negotiations between global economic powers like the Eurozone, Japan, and China may help stabilize the situation.

The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions will also be in focus, especially as Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday. Nansen analysts are looking for clarity on whether the Fed is likely to cut interest rates three times this year, as this could influence the market outlook. Investors will be particularly keen to hear Powell maintain a dovish stance, prioritizing growth concerns and signaling that the Fed might be comfortable cutting rates despite inflation remaining around 3% year-over-year.

On the employment front, March’s non-farm payroll data, which will be released on Friday, could provide another key piece of the puzzle. Nansen expects the payroll number to fall between economist consensus estimates of 139,000 and the six-month average of 191,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. These figures would be viewed positively by investors, especially given the recent decline of 11% in the S&P 500.

Despite some concerns over technical indicators for Bitcoin, which has struggled to break above its 200-day moving average, Nansen’s overall outlook for the week remains optimistic. The research firm has a 70% probability that crypto markets will reach a bottom between April and June, making this week’s data and policy decisions particularly pivotal for the trajectory of Bitcoin and other digital assets.