Following the completion of Bitcoin’s fourth halving, traders and investors are closely watching for signs of short-term market movements. While the spot price of Bitcoin showed a slight increase over the weekend, immediate significant movement was not observed post-halving, as noted in a recent update by QCP on Telegram.

Historically, previous halvings led to substantial surges in Bitcoin's spot price, occurring approximately 50 to 100 days after the halving event. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin bulls may have a window of opportunity to accumulate larger long positions in the coming weeks.

Anticipation of Short Squeeze and Altcoin Momentum

QCP analysts anticipate a potential short squeeze in the short term, driven by Altcoins and Memecoins. Many alternative cryptocurrencies have been experiencing persistent negative funding rates, with some reaching as low as -100%. A short squeeze scenario arises when short sellers are forced to cover their positions, leading to a sudden surge in demand and subsequent price increase.

QCP also highlights that Ethereum risk reversals have been normalizing to above -4%, indicating an improvement in speculative sentiment. This normalization could trigger short covering and a resurgence of leveraged long positions in ETH.

Trading Ideas from QCP

In light of these market dynamics, QCP presents two trading ideas:

Exploring Extended Range Knockouts (ERKOs): QCP suggests considering ERKO options, particularly the ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k and ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k, for those with a structurally bullish view on BTC. These options offer an appealing risk-reward profile with maximum payouts of 10.52 and 40 times the investment, respectively.

Building BTC Long Positions: QCP recommends building BTC long positions in the coming weeks, taking advantage of the anticipated post-halving exponential rally. They propose considering a BTC Accumulator with an expiry date of 6SEP24, offering a 20-week timeframe. The strike price is set at 55,000 USD, reflecting a discount of approximately 19.70% from the current spot price, with an upper barrier at 80,000 USD.

Market Outflows and Short-Selling Opportunities

While digital asset investment products experienced outflows totaling $206 million, Bitcoin investment products witnessed outflows of $192 million. However, some investors viewed this as an opportunity for short-selling, with short-Bitcoin strategies experiencing outflows of $0.3 million.