As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event looms just one day away, cryptocurrency markets are bracing for potential shifts. While optimism prevails in some quarters, analyst Elja presents a nuanced view, highlighting five key factors that could signal a downturn in Bitcoin and crypto prices in the coming quarters.

1. Closure of BTFP Program: Elja starts by discussing the closure of the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). With the cessation of new loans following failures by Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, significant market liquidity is removed. While this may have short-term bearish effects, the Federal Reserve's propensity to issue more money could mitigate the impact.

2. Prospects of Delayed Rate Cuts: Next, Elja explores prospects of delayed rate cuts, which traditionally boost stock and crypto markets. However, higher-than-expected CPI statistics and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments on protracted interest rates have dampened hopes of a bullish surge. Concerns arise, especially for risk-on assets, amid the 2024 rate drop reduction.

3. Decline in ETF Inflows: Elja points out a notable shift in cryptocurrency ETF flows, highlighting a decline in institutional interest reflected in slowing inflows. Particularly evident in Bitcoin ETFs, where outflows consistently exceed inflows, this trend may signal weakening confidence in the market's prospects among institutional investors.

4. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel add another layer of uncertainty to the market. Elja underscores the potential for significant market fluctuations in response to statements or actions from either party. Recent market reactions to similar events highlight the significance of geopolitical factors in shaping investor sentiment.

5. Bitcoin Historical Trends and Halving Impact: Summing up, Elja emphasizes that Q2-Q3 has historically been average to bearish for Bitcoin and crypto. With the impending halving, miners may sell more as mining costs increase. Similar to earlier halving cycles in 2016 and 2020, these variables could take several months to settle down.

In conclusion, Elja advises investors to stay focused and prepared to buy the dip. Experienced crypto investors view market stagnation or decline as an opportunity to acquire assets at lower prices, anticipating significant future growth. While predictions vary, with some suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150k and Ethereum hitting $12k, caution remains essential amidst market uncertainty.