Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500, driven by Fed's monetary shift - IcoHolder.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is back with a bold prediction for Bitcoin's future, forecasting that the cryptocurrency will rise to $110,000 before experiencing a pullback to $76,500. This forecast is based on his analysis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), which he believes will benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets.

In a post shared on March 24, Hayes highlighted the Federal Reserve’s apparent move away from tightening financial conditions, signaling a return to QE for treasury bonds. He argued that the shift, combined with the view that inflation is now "transitory," would provide favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s price to surge. Hayes added that the reduction in tariffs would no longer have a significant impact on the market.

His prediction comes as market sentiment continues to align with expectations that the Federal Reserve will end its QT program by May. According to prediction markets like Polymarket, there is now a 100% probability that the Fed will halt its QT operations by April 30. If this happens, analysts believe the resulting liquidity boost could trigger a new bull market for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Despite his optimism, Hayes has a history of revising his predictions. In September 2024, he acknowledged a misjudgment in his prior forecast, admitting he had been wrong about Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Hayes also warned in February that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $70,000 if major hedge funds unwind their positions in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. However, just weeks later, in late March, he adjusted his outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin had likely reached its bottom at $77,000.

As Hayes’ predictions evolve, his latest analysis reflects growing confidence that the market is primed for a significant upward movement, contingent on the Fed’s next steps.