Fidelity Digital Assets Report: Bitcoin Volatility Declining as Cryptocurrency Matures

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Bitcoin, renowned for its notorious volatility, is undergoing a transformation towards stability as it matures, according to a research report by Fidelity Digital Assets released on Wednesday. Analyst Zack Wainwright highlighted that new assets typically undergo a process of price discovery, maturation, and eventually settle into lower volatility regimes, drawing parallels with the historical volatility of gold following the U.S. departure from the gold standard in the 1970s.

In its 15-year existence, Bitcoin has demonstrated signs of maturation, with volatility reaching new all-time lows on a yearly scale. Wainwright emphasized a clear downward trend in Bitcoin's volatility over its lifespan, expecting this trend to persist as the cryptocurrency continues to evolve and attract mainstream adoption.

Comparing Bitcoin's volatility with traditional equities, Fidelity revealed that Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 companies listed on the S&P 500 and was less volatile than 92 stocks in the index as recently as October 2023, based on 90-day realized historical volatility figures. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than prominent companies like Netflix (NFLX). When benchmarked against the "magnificent seven," a group of high-performing stocks, Bitcoin's volatility appears consistent with the broader market.

However, Wainwright cautioned that emerging asset classes with small market capitalizations, like cryptocurrency, are prone to higher volatility due to new capital inflows. As the cryptocurrency market matures and its total market capitalization expands, the impact of new capital inflows is expected to diminish, resulting in a more stable market environment.

The approval of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January was anticipated to mitigate Bitcoin's volatility by attracting institutional investors. Nevertheless, Bitcoin experienced a downturn of over 16% last month despite these developments, highlighting the complexity of market dynamics.

"New capital inflows will not move the market or the marginal buyer or seller as much," the report emphasized, suggesting that as the cryptocurrency market matures, the influence of capital inflows will diminish.

As Bitcoin continues its journey towards mainstream acceptance and regulatory clarity, investors are closely monitoring its evolving volatility dynamics as a key indicator of market maturity and stability.