Is May the New September for Crypto Investors?

May 2, 2024 BACK TO NEWS

As the adage goes, "Sell in May and Go Away," but according to Nic Puckrin, co-founder and CEO of Coin Bureau, selling cryptocurrencies in May might be more profitable than waiting until September. Puckrin's analysis suggests that cumulative returns from selling in May have surpassed selling in September or any other time of the year by over 1,000%.

The traditional financial saying "Sell in May, Go Away" advises investors to sell their assets in May and wait until October to buy again, based on historical seasonality trends. This strategy has historically applied to the stock market, with the best six months of the year recorded from November through April. However, Puckrin's research indicates that a similar trend may exist in the crypto sector.

According to Puckrin, over the past five years, buying Bitcoin (BTC) in October and selling in April has yielded cumulative returns of 1,449%, while buying in May and selling in September resulted in a negative return of -29%. Citing a report by cryptocurrency research firm K33, Puckrin suggests that other studies have shown similar results, supporting the notion that May might indeed be a more lucrative time to sell cryptocurrencies.

However, market sentiment and on-chain indicators suggest that it may be too late for investors to capitalize on selling their assets in May this year. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index indicates waning retail sentiment, and Bitcoin search trends have declined. Additionally, X is filled with pessimistic posts, signaling a cooling market sentiment.

Institutional interest in crypto investment products also appears to be waning, with steady outflows observed in the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market and lower-than-expected inflows in newly-launched ETFs in Hong Kong. Perpetual funding rates have declined, and futures open interest held by non-ETF funds on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has hit its lowest level since October 2023.

Despite Bitcoin's recent decline from its all-time high, which has seen a more than 22% drop, it remains to be seen whether selling in May will continue to outperform selling in September in the long run.